One bag contains 2 red marbles and 2 blue marbles. A second bag contains 2 red marbles, 2 blue marbles, and green marbles, with . For each bag, Maria calculates the probability of randomly drawing two marbles of the same colour in two draws from that bag, without replacement. (Drawing two marbles without replacement means drawing two marbles, one after the other, without putting the first marble back into the bag.) If these two probabilities are equal, then the value of is
, 2013
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Solution
First, we consider the first bag, which contains a total of marbles.
There are 4 possible marbles that can be drawn first, leaving 3 possible marbles that can be drawn second. This gives a total of ways of drawing two marbles.
For both marbles to be red, there are 2 possible marbles (either red marble) that can be drawn first, and 1 marble that must be drawn second (the remaining red marble). This gives a total of ways of drawing two red marbles.
For both marbles to be blue, there are 2 possible marbles that can be drawn first, and 1 marble that must be drawn second. This gives a total of ways of drawing two blue marbles.
Therefore, the probability of drawing two marbles of the same colour from the first bag is the total number of ways of drawing two marbles of the same colour () divided by the total number of ways of drawing two marbles (12), or .
Second, we consider the second bag, which contains a total of marbles.
There are possible marbles that can be drawn first, leaving possible marbles that can be drawn second. This gives a total of ways of drawing two marbles.
As with the first bag, there are ways of drawing two red marbles.
As with the first bag, there are ways of drawing two blue marbles.
For both marbles to be green, there are possible marbles that can be drawn first, and marbles that must be drawn second. This gives a total of ways of drawing two green marbles.
Therefore, the probability of drawing two marbles of the same colour from the second bag is the total number of ways of drawing two marbles of the same colour () divided by the total number of ways of drawing two marbles (), or .
Since the two probabilities that we have calculated are to be equal and , then Therefore, or . Since , then .