Maths Olympiad Prep

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Algebra Difficulty 5.7 AIME, harder Prove it United States

Problem:

Newton and Leibniz are playing a game with a coin that comes up heads with probability pp. They take turns flipping the coin until one of them wins with Newton going first. Newton wins if he flips a heads and Leibniz wins if he flips a tails. Given that Newton and Leibniz each win the game half of the time, what is the probability pp?

Solution

Solution:

The probability that Newton will win on the first flip is pp. The probability that Newton will win on the third flip is (1p)p2(1-p) p^{2}, since the first flip must be tails, the second must be heads, and the third flip must be heads. By the same logic, the probability Newton will win on the (2n+1)st(2n+1)^{\text{st}} flip is (1p)n(p)n+1(1-p)^{n} (p)^{n+1}. Thus, we have an infinite geometric sequence:
p+(1p)p2+(1p)2p3+ p + (1-p) p^{2} + (1-p)^{2} p^{3} + \ldots
which equals
p1p(1p). \frac{p}{1 - p(1-p)}.
We are given that this sum must equal 12\frac{1}{2}, so
p1p(1p)=12. \frac{p}{1 - p(1-p)} = \frac{1}{2}.
Cross-multiplying gives:
2p=1p+p2 2p = 1 - p + p^{2}
0=13p+p2 0 = 1 - 3p + p^{2}
p23p+1=0 p^{2} - 3p + 1 = 0
Solving the quadratic equation:
p=3±942=3±52 p = \frac{3 \pm \sqrt{9 - 4}}{2} = \frac{3 \pm \sqrt{5}}{2}
Since pp must be between 00 and 11, the solution is:
p=352 p = \frac{3 - \sqrt{5}}{2}

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