Maths Olympiad Prep

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Algebra Difficulty 6.0 AIME, harder Prove it United States

Problem:

Rosencrantz and Guildenstern play a game in which they repeatedly flip a fair coin. Let a1=4a_{1}=4, a2=3a_{2}=3, and an=an1+an2a_{n}=a_{n-1}+a_{n-2} for all n3n \geq 3. On the nnth flip, if the coin is heads, Rosencrantz pays Guildenstern ana_{n} dollars, and, if the coin is tails, Guildenstern pays Rosencrantz ana_{n} dollars. If play continues for 2010 turns, what is the probability that Rosencrantz ends up with more money than he started with?

Solution

Solution:

Answer: 12121341\frac{1}{2}-\frac{1}{2^{1341}}

Since Rosencrantz and Guildenstern have an equal chance of winning each toss, both have the same probability of ending up with a positive amount of money. Let xx denote the probability that they both end up with zero dollars. We wish to find 1x2\frac{1-x}{2}.

We have xx is equal to the probability that
s2010:=i1a1+i2a2++i2010a2010=0 s_{2010}:=i_{1} a_{1}+i_{2} a_{2}+\cdots+i_{2010} a_{2010}=0
where ini_{n} has an equal probability of being either 11 or 1-1.

We claim that s2010=0s_{2010}=0 if and only if i3n=i3n1=i3n2i_{3 n}=-i_{3 n-1}=-i_{3 n-2} for all n670n \leq 670. We start with the following lemma.

Lemma. We have an>k=1n3aka_{n}>\sum_{k=1}^{n-3} a_{k} for all n4n \geq 4.

Proof: For the case n=4n=4, a4=a3+a2=2a2+a1>a1a_{4}=a_{3}+a_{2}=2 a_{2}+a_{1}>a_{1}. In case n>4n>4, we have
an=an2+an1>an2+k=1n4ak=an4+k=1n3ak>k=1n3ak a_{n}=a_{n-2}+a_{n-1}>a_{n-2}+\sum_{k=1}^{n-4} a_{k}=a_{n-4}+\sum_{k=1}^{n-3} a_{k}>\sum_{k=1}^{n-3} a_{k}

It suffices to show that s3n=0s_{3 n}=0 only if i3k=i3k1=i3k2i_{3 k}=-i_{3 k-1}=-i_{3 k-2} for all knk \leq n. The triangle inequality implies the following:
0i3n2a3n2+s3n3i3n1a3n1+i3na3ns3n=00i3n1a3n1+s3n3i3n2a3n2+i3na3ns3n=0 \begin{aligned} & 0 \leq\left|\left|i_{3 n-2} a_{3 n-2}+s_{3 n-3}\right|-\left|i_{3 n-1} a_{3 n-1}+i_{3 n} a_{3 n}\right|\right| \leq\left|s_{3 n}\right|=0 \\ & 0 \leq\left|\left|i_{3 n-1} a_{3 n-1}+s_{3 n-3}\right|-\left|i_{3 n-2} a_{3 n-2}+i_{3 n} a_{3 n}\right|\right| \leq\left|s_{3 n}\right|=0 \end{aligned}

By the lemma, we have
a3n2+k=13n3ak<a3n2+a3n<a3n1+a3na3n1+k=13n3ak<a3n1+a3n3+a3n4+a3n2=a3n2+a3n \begin{array}{rll} a_{3 n-2}+\sum_{k=1}^{3 n-3} a_{k}<a_{3 n-2}+a_{3 n} & < & a_{3 n-1}+a_{3 n} \\ a_{3 n-1}+\sum_{k=1}^{3 n-3} a_{k}<a_{3 n-1}+a_{3 n-3}+a_{3 n-4}+a_{3 n-2} & = & a_{3 n-2}+a_{3 n} \end{array}

i3n=i3n1i_{3 n}=i_{3 n-1} implies a3n2+k=13n3ak<i3n1a3n1+i3na3n\left|a_{3 n-2}+\sum_{k=1}^{3 n-3} a_{k}\right|<\left|i_{3 n-1} a_{3 n-1}+i_{3 n} a_{3 n}\right| and i3n=i3n2i_{3 n}=i_{3 n-2} implies a3n1+k=13n3ak<i3n2a3n2+i3na3n|a_{3 n-1}+\sum_{k=1}^{3 n-3} a_{k}|<|i_{3 n-2} a_{3 n-2}+i_{3 n} a_{3 n}|, which are both contradictions; therefore, we must have i3n=i3n1i_{3 n}=-i_{3 n-1} and i3n=i3n2i_{3 n}=-i_{3 n-2}.

The probability that i3n=i3n1=i3n2i_{3 n}=-i_{3 n-1}=-i_{3 n-2} is 14\frac{1}{4}, so x=(14)670=121340x=\left(\frac{1}{4}\right)^{670}=\frac{1}{2^{1340}}, and 1x2=12121341\frac{1-x}{2}=\frac{1}{2}-\frac{1}{2^{1341}}.

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