Solution:

Answer: $\frac{1}{2^{2011}}$

Note that $T$ is a hypercube in 2012-dimensional space, containing the rotated hyperoctahedron $S$. Let $v$ be a particular vertex of $S$, and we will consider the set of points $x$ on $T$ such that $v$ is the closest point to $x$ in $S$. Let $w$ be another point of $S$ and let $\ell$ be the line between $v$ and $w$. Then in order for $v$ to be the closest point to $x$ in $S$, it must also be so on the region of $\ell$ contained in $S$. This condition is then equivalent to the projection of $x$ lying past $v$ on the line $\ell$, or alternatively that $v$ lies in the opposite halfspace of $w$ defined by the hyperplane perpendicular to $\ell$ and passing through $v$. This can be written algebraically as $(x-v) \cdot (w-v) \leq 0$. Therefore, $v$ is the closest point to $x$ if and only if $(x-v) \cdot (w-v) \leq 0$ for all $w$ in $S$.

Note that these conditions do not depend on where $w$ is on the line, so for each line intersecting $S$ nontrivially, let us choose $w$ such that $w$ lies on the hyperplane $H$ containing all the vertices of $S$ except for $v$ and $-v$. We can further see that the conditions are linear in $w$, so them holding for all $w$ in $H$ is equivalent to them holding on the vertices of the region $S \cap H$, which are simply the vertices of $S$ except for $v$ and $-v$. Let us now compute what these conditions look like.

Without loss of generality, let $v = (1, 0, \ldots, 0)$ and $w = (0, 1, 0, \ldots, 0)$. Then the equation is of the form $(x-v) \cdot (-1, 1, 0, \ldots, 0) \leq 0$, which we can rewrite as $(x_{1} - 1, x_{2}, x_{3}, \ldots, x_{2012}) \cdot (-1, 1, 0, \ldots, 0) = 1 - x_{1} + x_{2} \leq 0$. For the other choices of $w$, we get the similar conditions that $1 - x_{1} + x_{i} \leq 0$ and also $1 - x_{1} - x_{i} \leq 0$ for each $i \in \{2, \ldots, 2012\}$.

Note that if any $x_{i} \in \{2, -2\}$ for $i \neq 1$, then one of these conditions trivially fails, as it would require $3 - x_{1} \leq 0$. Therefore, the only face of $T$ where $x$ can lie is the face defined by $x_{1} = 2$, which gives us the conditions that $-1 + x_{i} \leq 0$ and $-1 - x_{i} \leq 0$, so $x_{i} \in [-1, 1]$ for all $i \in \{2, \ldots, 2012\}$. This defines a 2011-dimensional hypercube of side length 2 on the face of $T$ defined by $x_{1} = 2$, and we obtain similar regions on each of the other faces corresponding to the other vertices of $S$.

Therefore, the volume of the set of $x$ for which $x$ is closest to a vertex is $2 \cdot 2012 \cdot 2^{2011}$ and the volume of all the choices of $x$ is $2 \cdot 2012 \cdot 4^{2011}$, so the desired probability is $\frac{1}{2^{2011}}$.