AlgebraDifficulty 4.5AIMEFind the answerUnited States
Problem:
Weighted coins numbered 2,3,4,…,2015 are tossed. The coin numbered i comes up heads with probability 1/(2i2). What is the probability that an odd number of coins come up heads?
A number or a short expression. Fractions can be typed as 3/2, and spacing doesn't matter.
Solution
Solution:
Let Pn be the probability that an odd number out of the coins whose numbers are at most n (1≤n≤2015) come up heads. For 2≤n≤2015, there are two ways for this to happen: coin n is tails and an odd number of the preceding coins are heads, or coin n is heads and an even number of the preceding coins are heads. So we have a recursion Pn=(1−2n21)Pn−1+2n21(1−Pn−1)=2n22n2Pn−1−2Pn−1+1=2n22(n2−1)Pn−1+1. If we subtract 1/2 from each side, we have the factorization Pn−21=n2n2−1(Pn−1−21) Now, using the initial value P1=0, we have P2015−21=−21⋅n=2∏2015n2n2−1=−21⋅n=2∏2015n⋅n(n−1)(n+1)=−21⋅(2⋅3⋯2015)(2⋅3⋯2015)(1⋅2⋯2014)(3⋅4⋯2016)=−21⋅2015⋅21⋅2016=−2015504 and thus P2015=21−2015504=40301007
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