The journalist is right for p≥73 and wrong for p≤72.
Let a,b,c denote the number of votes for A,B,C in the first round, and let N=a+b+c be the total number of voters in this round. By hypothesis a=10044(b+c)=2511(N−a), hence a=3611N; also c<a.
The number of voters in the second round is N′=N−100pc. There are (1−100p)c persons who voted for C in the first round and participate in the second round. For brevity call them and their votes additional. Since B's supporters voted for him in both rounds, the most A can achieve is that his own supporters vote for him again in the second round, and also the additional voters. So the maximum number of votes A can get is amax=a+(1−100p)c.
We are interested in the difference N′−2amax (whose sign determines the chances of A):
N′−2amax=(N−100pc)−2⋅3611N−2(1−100p)c=187N−100200−pc.
Let us say already here that the different outcomes for p≥73 and p≤72 are due to the inequalities
100127+3611<187+100128<3611
(which hold as 127⋅11=1397<1400=100⋅2⋅7<128⋅11=1408).
Suppose that p≥73. Then 100200−pc<100127c<100127a=100127N. Since 100127<3611<187, it follows that 100200−pc<187N, i.e. N′−2amax>0. So A cannot win even if he gets the maximum possible number of votes. Therefore B wins with certainty, and the journalist is right.
For p≤72 there are examples showing that either candidate can win. In this case 100200−pc≥100128c.
Now the inequality 187<100128⋅3611 (see above) implies 128100⋅187<3611N. Take N such that both sides of the inequality are integers differing by more than 1, for instance N=2lcm(36,128). Then an integer c can be chosen so that 128100<187N<3611N. The condition c<a for the first round is satisfied. For this choice of c we have 187N<100128c, and 100200−pc≥100128c was shown above for p≤72, which implies N′−2amax<0. So A wins if he gets amax votes. This is possible if all of his supporters vote for him again, and also all additional voters.
On the other hand it is clear that B is a possible winner for any p, for instance if A gets no votes at all (which is not excluded by the conditions). It is of more substance to note that B can also win for p≤72 even if all of A's supporters vote for him again in the second round. Indeed if p≤72 then c<a implies N′=N−100pc>N−10072a=N−10072⋅3611N=5039N. This is greater than 2a=1811N, so if all additional votes go to B then B wins.
Remark. There are values of N for which the situation can describe actual elections, for instance, N=1800000. Then a=3611N=550000 and, for p≤72, the key number for the construction is 128100⋅187N=546875<550000. So there are plenty of (integer) choices for c in [546875,550000].