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Combinatorics Difficulty 5.3 AIME, harder Prove it United States

Problem:

Values a1,,a2013a_{1}, \ldots, a_{2013} are chosen independently and at random from the set {1,,2013}\{1, \ldots, 2013\}. What is expected number of distinct values in the set {a1,,a2013}\left\{a_{1}, \ldots, a_{2013}\right\}?

Solution

Solution:

Answer: 201320132012201320132012\frac{2013^{2013}-2012^{2013}}{2013^{2012}}

For each n{1,2,,2013}n \in \{1,2, \ldots, 2013\}, let Xn=1X_{n}=1 if nn appears in {a1,a2,,a2013}\left\{a_{1}, a_{2}, \ldots, a_{2013}\right\} and 00 otherwise. Defined this way, E[Xn]\mathrm{E}\left[X_{n}\right] is the probability that nn appears in {a1,a2,,a2013}\left\{a_{1}, a_{2}, \ldots, a_{2013}\right\}.

Since each aia_{i} (1i20131 \leq i \leq 2013) is not nn with probability 20122013\frac{2012}{2013}, the probability that nn is none of the aia_{i}'s is (20122013)2013\left(\frac{2012}{2013}\right)^{2013}, so E[Xn]\mathrm{E}\left[X_{n}\right], the probability that nn is one of the aia_{i}'s, is 1(20122013)20131-\left(\frac{2012}{2013}\right)^{2013}.

The expected number of distinct values in {a1,,a2013}\left\{a_{1}, \ldots, a_{2013}\right\} is the expected number of n{1,2,,2013}n \in \{1,2, \ldots, 2013\} such that Xn=1X_{n}=1, that is, the expected value of X1+X2++X2013X_{1}+X_{2}+\cdots+X_{2013}.

By linearity of expectation,
E[X1+X2++X2013]=E[X1]+E[X2]++E[X2013]=2013(1(20122013)2013)=201320132012201320132012. \mathrm{E}\left[X_{1}+X_{2}+\cdots+X_{2013}\right]=\mathrm{E}\left[X_{1}\right]+\mathrm{E}\left[X_{2}\right]+\cdots+\mathrm{E}\left[X_{2013}\right]=2013\left(1-\left(\frac{2012}{2013}\right)^{2013}\right)=\frac{2013^{2013}-2012^{2013}}{2013^{2012}}.

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