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Combinatorics Difficulty 5.8 AIME, harder Find the answer China

AA and BB are playing ping-pong, with the agreement that the winner of a game will get 11 point and the loser 00 point; the match ends as soon as one of the players is ahead by 22 points or the number of games reaches 66. Suppose that the probabilities of AA and BB winning a game are 23\frac{2}{3} and 13\frac{1}{3}, respectively, and each game is independent. Then the expectation EξE\xi for the match ending with ξ\xi games is:

Pick one

Solution

Solution I It is easy to see that ξ\xi can only be 22, 44 or 66. We divide the six games into three rounds, each consisting of two consecutive games. If one of the players wins two games in the first round, the match ends and the probability is
(23)2+(13)2=59. \left(\frac{2}{3}\right)^2 + \left(\frac{1}{3}\right)^2 = \frac{5}{9}.
Otherwise the players tie with each other, earning one point each, and the match enters the second round; this probability is
159=491 - \frac{5}{9} = \frac{4}{9}.
We have similar discussions for the second and third rounds. So we get
P(ξ=2)=59,P(ξ=4)=49×59=2081,P(ξ=6)=(49)2=1681. \begin{aligned} P(\xi = 2) &= \frac{5}{9}, \\ P(\xi = 4) &= \frac{4}{9} \times \frac{5}{9} = \frac{20}{81}, \\ P(\xi = 6) &= \left(\frac{4}{9}\right)^2 = \frac{16}{81}. \end{aligned}
Then
Eξ=2×59+4×2081+6×1681=26681. E\xi = 2 \times \frac{5}{9} + 4 \times \frac{20}{81} + 6 \times \frac{16}{81} = \frac{266}{81}.

Solution II Let AkA_k denote the event that AA wins the kkth game, while Ak\overline{A}_k means that BB wins the game. Since AkA_k and Ak\overline{A}_k are incompatible, and are independent of the other events, we have
P(ξ=2)=P(A1A2)+P(A1A2)=59, P(\xi = 2) = P(A_1A_2) + P(\overline{A}_1\overline{A}_2) = \frac{5}{9},
P(ξ=4)=P(A1A2A3A4)+P(A1A2A3A4)+P(A1A2A3A4)+P(A1A2A3A4)=2[(23)3(13)+(13)3(23)]=2081, \begin{aligned} P(\xi = 4) &= P(A_1\overline{A}_2A_3A_4) + P(A_1\overline{A}_2\overline{A}_3A_4) + \\ & P(\overline{A}_1A_2A_3A_4) + P(\overline{A}_1A_2\overline{A}_3A_4) \\ &= 2\left[\left(\frac{2}{3}\right)^3\left(\frac{1}{3}\right) + \left(\frac{1}{3}\right)^3\left(\frac{2}{3}\right)\right] = \frac{20}{81}, \end{aligned}
P(ξ=6)=P(A1A2A3A4)+P(A1A2A3A4)+P(A1A2A3A4)+P(A1A2A3A4)=4(23)2(13)2=1681. \begin{aligned} P(\xi = 6) &= P(A_1\overline{A}_2A_3\overline{A}_4) + P(A_1\overline{A}_2\overline{A}_3A_4) + \\ & P(\overline{A}_1A_2A_3\overline{A}_4) + P(\overline{A}_1A_2\overline{A}_3A_4) \\ &= 4\left(\frac{2}{3}\right)^2\left(\frac{1}{3}\right)^2 = \frac{16}{81}. \end{aligned}
Then
Eξ=2×59+4×2081+6×1681=26681. E\xi = 2 \times \frac{5}{9} + 4 \times \frac{20}{81} + 6 \times \frac{16}{81} = \frac{266}{81}.

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