Maths Olympiad Prep

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Combinatorics Difficulty 4.6 AIME Prove it United States

Problem:
A fair coin is flipped nine times. Which is more likely, having exactly four heads or having exactly five heads?

Solution

Solution:
Both outcomes are equally likely! Notice that for every sequence with four heads (such as HTTHHTHTT) there is a corresponding sequence with exactly five heads formed by reversing all the coin flips (in this case THHTHTHHT H H T H T H H). Thus the number of sequences of nine flips with exactly four heads is equal to the number of sequences with exactly five heads; since every sequence is equally likely this completes the proof.

In fact, both probabilities are equal to
(94)29=(95)29=126512 \frac{\binom{9}{4}}{2^{9}} = \frac{\binom{9}{5}}{2^{9}} = \frac{126}{512}

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Source: MathNet, licensed CC-BY-4.0. Statement reproduced verbatim; metadata (topic, difficulty) added by this project.