Maths Olympiad Prep

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Combinatorics Difficulty 4.9 AIME Prove it United States

Problem:
a) Find the expected number of flips to get two heads in a row.
b) Find the expected number of flips to get heads followed by tails.

Solution

Solution:
a.
Let xx be the expected number of flips. There is a 14\frac{1}{4} chance that she gets two heads right away. There is a 12\frac{1}{2} chance the first flip is tails, in which case she is basically starting over after the first flip, so it will take an expected x+1x+1 flips total. Finally, there is a 14\frac{1}{4} chance the first flip is heads and the second tails, in which case she is basically starting over after 2 flips, so it will take an expected x+2x+2 flips total. Thus we get
x=142+12(x+1)+14(x+2)=32+34x. x = \frac{1}{4} \cdot 2 + \frac{1}{2}(x+1) + \frac{1}{4}(x+2) = \frac{3}{2} + \frac{3}{4} x.
Solving this gives x=6x = 6.

b.
Let the expected number of flips be yy. There is a 12\frac{1}{2} chance you get tails on the first flip, in which case she is basically starting over, so it will take an expected y+1y+1 flips total. If she gets heads on the first flip, then she is just waiting until she first gets tails. She has a 12\frac{1}{2} chance of getting tails on each flip, so it will be an expected 2 flips before she first gets tails, for an expected 3 flips total. Thus we get
y=12(y+1)+123=12y+2. y = \frac{1}{2}(y+1) + \frac{1}{2} \cdot 3 = \frac{1}{2} y + 2.
Solving this gives y=4y = 4.

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Source: MathNet, licensed CC-BY-4.0. Statement reproduced verbatim; metadata (topic, difficulty) added by this project.