Problem:
Jacob starts with some complex number other than or . He repeatedly flips a fair coin. If the flip lands heads, he lets , and if it lands tails he lets . Over all possible choices of , what are all possible values of the probability that ?
Problem:
Jacob starts with some complex number other than or . He repeatedly flips a fair coin. If the flip lands heads, he lets , and if it lands tails he lets . Over all possible choices of , what are all possible values of the probability that ?
Solution:
Let , . Then for any , and . Furthermore,
,
g(f(g(x))) =
,
g(f(g(f(g(x))))) = 1 - x = f(x)$,
so for all , is one of , , , , , , and we can understand the coin flipping procedure as moving either left or right with equal probability along this cycle of values.
For most , all six of these values are distinct. In this case, suppose that we move right times and left times between and . For , we need to have that , or . The number of possible ways to return to is then . Let . Then we have and that , where is a primitive third root of unity. It can be seen that is a primitive sixth root of unity and is its inverse, so , and similarly . Therefore, , so , and our desired probability is then .
For some , however, the cycle of values can become degenerate. It could be the case that two adjacent values are equal. Let be a value that is equal to an adjacent value. Then or , which gives . Therefore, this only occurs in the cycle of values . In this case, note that after 2012 steps we will always end up an even number of steps away from our starting point, and each of the numbers occupies two spaces of opposite parity, so we would need to return to our original location, just as if all six numbers were distinct. Therefore in this case we again have that the probability that is .
It is also possible that two numbers two apart on the cycle are equal. For this to be the case, let be the value such that . Then , or , so . Let . Then we get that the cycle of values is , and since at the end we are always an even number of spaces away from our starting location, the probability that is .
Finally, we need to consider the possibility that two opposite numbers are equal. In this case we have a such that , or , so . In this case we obtain the same cycle of numbers in the case where two adjacent numbers are equal, and so we again obtain the probability . Therefore, the only possibilities are .