Maths Olympiad Prep

Library / /1252 of 1394

, 2022

Combinatorics Difficulty 5.9 AIME, harder Prove it United States

Problem:

Five cards labeled 1,3,5,7,91, 3, 5, 7, 9 are laid in a row in that order, forming the five-digit number 1357913579 when read from left to right. A swap consists of picking two distinct cards, and then swapping them. After three swaps, the cards form a new five-digit number nn when read from left to right. Compute the expected value of nn.

Solution

Solution:

For a given card, let p(n)p(n) denote the probability that it is in its original position after nn swaps. Then
p(n+1)=p(n)35+(1p(n))110, p(n+1) = p(n) \cdot \frac{3}{5} + (1 - p(n)) \cdot \frac{1}{10},
by casework on whether the card is in the correct position or not after nn swaps. In particular, p(0)=1p(0) = 1, p(1)=3/5p(1) = 3/5, p(2)=2/5p(2) = 2/5, and p(3)=3/10p(3) = 3/10.

For a certain digit originally occupied with the card labeled dd, we see that, at the end of the process, the card at the digit is dd with probability 3/103/10 and equally likely to be one of the four non-dd cards with probability 7/107/10. Thus the expected value of the card at this digit is
3d10+71025d4=12d+1757d40=d+358 \frac{3d}{10} + \frac{7}{10} \cdot \frac{25 - d}{4} = \frac{12d + 175 - 7d}{40} = \frac{d + 35}{8}
By linearity of expectation, our final answer is therefore
13579+35111118=4024648=50308 \frac{13579 + 35 \cdot 11111}{8} = \frac{402464}{8} = 50308

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Source: MathNet, licensed CC-BY-4.0. Statement reproduced verbatim; metadata (topic, difficulty) added by this project.