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Algebra Difficulty 4.8 AIME Find the answer United States

Two teams are in a best-two-out-of-three playoff: the teams will play at most 33 games, and the winner of the playoff is the first team to win 22 games. The first game is played on Team AA's home field, and the remaining games are played on Team BB's home field. Team AA has a 23\frac{2}{3} chance of winning at home, and its probability of winning when playing away from home is pp. Outcomes of the games are independent. The probability that Team AA wins the playoff is 12\frac{1}{2}. Then pp can be written in the form 12(mn)\frac{1}{2}(m - \sqrt{n}), where mm and nn are positive integers. What is m+nm + n?

Pick one

Solution

There are three ways for Team AA to win the playoff: win the first two games; win the first game, lose the second game, and win the third game; or lose the first game and win the second and third games. The probability that it wins in one of these ways is
23p+23(1p)p+13p2=13p2+43p. \frac{2}{3} \cdot p + \frac{2}{3} \cdot (1-p) \cdot p + \frac{1}{3} \cdot p^2 = -\frac{1}{3}p^2 + \frac{4}{3}p.
Setting this equal to 12\frac{1}{2} and simplifying gives 2p28p+3=02p^2 - 8p + 3 = 0, and the Quadratic Formula gives solutions 12(4±10)\frac{1}{2}(4 \pm \sqrt{10}). Choosing the plus sign gives a nonsensical value of pp because it is greater than 11, so the required probability is 12(410)0.42\frac{1}{2}(4 - \sqrt{10}) \approx 0.42. The requested sum is 4+10=144 + 10 = 14.

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Source: MathNet, licensed CC-BY-4.0. Statement reproduced verbatim; metadata (topic, difficulty) added by this project.