Two teams are in a best-two-out-of-three playoff: the teams will play at most games, and the winner of the playoff is the first team to win games. The first game is played on Team 's home field, and the remaining games are played on Team 's home field. Team has a chance of winning at home, and its probability of winning when playing away from home is . Outcomes of the games are independent. The probability that Team wins the playoff is . Then can be written in the form , where and are positive integers. What is ?
Pick one
Solution
There are three ways for Team to win the playoff: win the first two games; win the first game, lose the second game, and win the third game; or lose the first game and win the second and third games. The probability that it wins in one of these ways is
Setting this equal to and simplifying gives , and the Quadratic Formula gives solutions . Choosing the plus sign gives a nonsensical value of because it is greater than , so the required probability is . The requested sum is .
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