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Combinatorics Difficulty 3.2 AMC 10/12 Find the answer

Xiao Li walks from home to work at the company. The company requires employees to arrive no later than 8:00 a.m., otherwise it will be considered late. Xiao Li needs to pass through 4 intersections on the way to work, and the probability of encountering a red light at each intersection is 12\frac{1}{2}, and they are independent of each other. It is known that the average waiting time for each red light is 1 minute. If Xiao Li does not encounter any red lights, he can arrive at the company in just 10 minutes. Find:(1)(1) The latest time Xiao Li should leave home to ensure a probability of being not late higher than 90%;(2)(2) If Xiao Li leaves home at 7:48 a.m. for two consecutive days, the probability of being late on exactly one day;(3)(3) The average duration of Xiao Li's journey to work.

A number or a short expression. Spacing and $ signs are ignored.

Solution

### Problem Solution Rewritten in Step-by-Step Format

#### Part (1): Latest Time Xiao Li Should Leave Home

- Case of Leaving at 7:46 a.m.: Xiao Li will definitely not be late because the journey without red lights takes 10 minutes, arriving at 7:56 a.m.
- Case of Leaving at 7:47 a.m.: Xiao Li will be late only if he encounters 4 red lights. The probability of this happening is calculated as:
P(4 red lights)=(12)4=116 P(\text{4 red lights}) = \left(\frac{1}{2}\right)^4 = \frac{1}{16}
Thus, the probability of not being late is:
P(not late)=1116=1516>90% P(\text{not late}) = 1 - \frac{1}{16} = \frac{15}{16} > 90\%
- Case of Leaving at 7:48 a.m.: Xiao Li will be late if he encounters 3 or 4 red lights. The probability of being late is calculated as:
P(3 or 4 red lights)=C43×(12)3×12+(12)4=516 P(\text{3 or 4 red lights}) = {C}_{4}^{3} \times \left(\frac{1}{2}\right)^3 \times \frac{1}{2} + \left(\frac{1}{2}\right)^4 = \frac{5}{16}
Therefore, the probability of not being late is:
P(not late)=1516=1116<90% P(\text{not late}) = 1 - \frac{5}{16} = \frac{11}{16} < 90\%
To ensure a probability of not being late higher than 90%, Xiao Li should leave home at 7:47a.m.\boxed{7:47\, \text{a.m.}}

#### Part (2): Probability of Being Late on Exactly One Day

- Given the probability of being late when leaving at 7:48 a.m. is 516\frac{5}{16}, and the probability of not being late is 1116\frac{11}{16}.
- The probability of being late on exactly one day out of two is calculated using the binomial formula:
P=C21×516×1116=55128 P = {C}_{2}^{1} \times \frac{5}{16} \times \frac{11}{16} = \frac{55}{128}
Therefore, the probability is 55128\boxed{\frac{55}{128}}.

#### Part (3): Average Duration of Xiao Li's Journey to Work

- The possible journey times and their probabilities are calculated as follows:
- P(X=10)=P(X=14)=(12)4=116P(X=10) = P(X=14) = \left(\frac{1}{2}\right)^4 = \frac{1}{16}
- P(X=11)=P(X=13)=C41×(12)4=14P(X=11) = P(X=13) = {C}_{4}^{1} \times \left(\frac{1}{2}\right)^4 = \frac{1}{4}
- P(X=12)=C42×(12)4=38P(X=12) = {C}_{4}^{2} \times \left(\frac{1}{2}\right)^4 = \frac{3}{8}
- The average duration, E(X)E(X), is calculated as:
E(X)=10×116+11×14+12×38+13×14+14×116=12minutes E(X) = 10 \times \frac{1}{16} + 11 \times \frac{1}{4} + 12 \times \frac{3}{8} + 13 \times \frac{1}{4} + 14 \times \frac{1}{16} = 12\, \text{minutes}
Therefore, the average duration of Xiao Li's journey to work is 12minutes\boxed{12\, \text{minutes}}.

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Source: NuminaMath-1.5, licensed Apache-2.0. Statement and solution reproduced as published; topic and difficulty added by this site.