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1714. The wear of the machine in the production of some parts is such that the production of each part reduces the probability of producing a part of the highest grade by 1%1 \%. What can be said, based on the Poisson theorem with a probability of no less than 0.8, about the number of parts of the highest grade in a batch of 100 parts produced on one machine, if the probability that the first one is of the highest grade is 0.9?

A number or a short expression. Spacing and $ signs are ignored.

Solution

Solution. If the probability that a part made by the ii-th on a given machine will be of the highest grade is denoted by plp_{l}, then

p1=0.9;p2=0.90.90.01=0.90.99;p3=0.90.990.90.990.01=0.9(0.99)2;;pi=0.9(0.99)i1;;p100==0.9(0.99)99;pˉ=1ni=1npi=1100i=11000.9(0.99)i1=0.91001(0.99910010.99=0.9100××10.36650.01=0.570;i=1npi(1pi)=i=11000.9(0.99)i1[10.9(0.99)i1]==i=1n0.9(0.99)i1i=1100(0.9)2(0.99)2(i1)=0.91(0.99)10010.99(0.9)21(0.99)2001(0.99)2=21.39 \begin{gathered} p_{1}=0.9 ; p_{2}=0.9-0.9 \cdot 0.01=0.9 \cdot 0.99 ; p_{3}=0.9 \cdot 0.99- \\ -0.9 \cdot 0.99 \cdot 0.01=0.9 \cdot(0.99)^{2} ; \ldots ; p_{i}=0.9 \cdot(0.99)^{i-1} ; \ldots ; p_{100}= \\ =0.9 \cdot(0.99)^{99} ; \\ \bar{p}=\frac{1}{n} \sum_{i=1}^{n} p_{i}=\frac{1}{100} \sum_{i=1}^{100} 0.9 \cdot(0.99)^{i-1}=\frac{0.9}{100} \cdot \frac{1-\left(0.999^{100}\right.}{1-0.99}=\frac{0.9}{100} \times \\ \times \frac{1-0.3665}{0.01}=0.570 ; \\ \sum_{i=1}^{n} p_{i}\left(1-p_{i}\right)=\sum_{i=1}^{100} 0.9 \cdot(0.99)^{i-1} \cdot\left[1-0.9 \cdot(0.99)^{i-1}\right]= \\ =\sum_{i=1}^{n} 0.9 \cdot(0.99)^{i-1}-\sum_{i=1}^{100}(0.9)^{2}(0.99)^{2(i-1)}=0.9 \cdot \frac{1-(0.99)^{100}}{1-0.99}- \\ -(0.9)^{2} \cdot \frac{1-(0.99)^{200}}{1-(0.99)^{2}}=21.39 \end{gathered}

Therefore, in our case, the inequality of the Poisson theorem takes the form

P(mn0.570<ε)121.39ε21002 P\left(\left|\frac{m}{n}-0.570\right|<\varepsilon\right) \geqslant 1-\frac{21.39}{\varepsilon^{2} \cdot 100^{2}}

If we choose ε\varepsilon such that 121.39ε21002=0.81-\frac{21.39}{\varepsilon^{2} \cdot 100^{2}}=0.8, then the probability P(mn0.570<ε)P\left(\left|\frac{m}{n}-0.570\right|<\varepsilon\right) will be no less than 0.8. From the equation above, we find:

0.2=21.391002ε2;ε2=21.390.21002=0.0107;ε=0.103 0.2=\frac{21.39}{100^{2} \cdot \varepsilon^{2}} ; \quad \varepsilon^{2}=\frac{21.39}{0.2 \cdot 100^{2}}=0.0107 ; \varepsilon=0.103

Thus, with a probability of no less than 0.8, we can assert that

mn0.57<0.103;m57<10.3;46.7<m<67.3 \left|\frac{m}{n}-0.57\right|<0.103 ;|m-57|<10.3 ; 46.7<m<67.3

i.e., the number of parts of the highest grade is between 47 and 67.

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Source: NuminaMath-1.5, licensed Apache-2.0. Statement and solution reproduced as published; topic and difficulty added by this site.