Solution. If the probability that a part made by the i i i -th on a given machine will be of the highest grade is denoted by p l p_{l} p l , then
p 1 = 0.9 ; p 2 = 0.9 − 0.9 ⋅ 0.01 = 0.9 ⋅ 0.99 ; p 3 = 0.9 ⋅ 0.99 − − 0.9 ⋅ 0.99 ⋅ 0.01 = 0.9 ⋅ ( 0.99 ) 2 ; … ; p i = 0.9 ⋅ ( 0.99 ) i − 1 ; … ; p 100 = = 0.9 ⋅ ( 0.99 ) 99 ; p ˉ = 1 n ∑ i = 1 n p i = 1 100 ∑ i = 1 100 0.9 ⋅ ( 0.99 ) i − 1 = 0.9 100 ⋅ 1 − ( 0.999 100 1 − 0.99 = 0.9 100 × × 1 − 0.3665 0.01 = 0.570 ; ∑ i = 1 n p i ( 1 − p i ) = ∑ i = 1 100 0.9 ⋅ ( 0.99 ) i − 1 ⋅ [ 1 − 0.9 ⋅ ( 0.99 ) i − 1 ] = = ∑ i = 1 n 0.9 ⋅ ( 0.99 ) i − 1 − ∑ i = 1 100 ( 0.9 ) 2 ( 0.99 ) 2 ( i − 1 ) = 0.9 ⋅ 1 − ( 0.99 ) 100 1 − 0.99 − − ( 0.9 ) 2 ⋅ 1 − ( 0.99 ) 200 1 − ( 0.99 ) 2 = 21.39
\begin{gathered}
p_{1}=0.9 ; p_{2}=0.9-0.9 \cdot 0.01=0.9 \cdot 0.99 ; p_{3}=0.9 \cdot 0.99- \\
-0.9 \cdot 0.99 \cdot 0.01=0.9 \cdot(0.99)^{2} ; \ldots ; p_{i}=0.9 \cdot(0.99)^{i-1} ; \ldots ; p_{100}= \\
=0.9 \cdot(0.99)^{99} ; \\
\bar{p}=\frac{1}{n} \sum_{i=1}^{n} p_{i}=\frac{1}{100} \sum_{i=1}^{100} 0.9 \cdot(0.99)^{i-1}=\frac{0.9}{100} \cdot \frac{1-\left(0.999^{100}\right.}{1-0.99}=\frac{0.9}{100} \times \\
\times \frac{1-0.3665}{0.01}=0.570 ; \\
\sum_{i=1}^{n} p_{i}\left(1-p_{i}\right)=\sum_{i=1}^{100} 0.9 \cdot(0.99)^{i-1} \cdot\left[1-0.9 \cdot(0.99)^{i-1}\right]= \\
=\sum_{i=1}^{n} 0.9 \cdot(0.99)^{i-1}-\sum_{i=1}^{100}(0.9)^{2}(0.99)^{2(i-1)}=0.9 \cdot \frac{1-(0.99)^{100}}{1-0.99}- \\
-(0.9)^{2} \cdot \frac{1-(0.99)^{200}}{1-(0.99)^{2}}=21.39
\end{gathered}
p 1 = 0.9 ; p 2 = 0.9 − 0.9 ⋅ 0.01 = 0.9 ⋅ 0.99 ; p 3 = 0.9 ⋅ 0.99 − − 0.9 ⋅ 0.99 ⋅ 0.01 = 0.9 ⋅ ( 0.99 ) 2 ; … ; p i = 0.9 ⋅ ( 0.99 ) i − 1 ; … ; p 100 = = 0.9 ⋅ ( 0.99 ) 99 ; p ˉ = n 1 i = 1 ∑ n p i = 100 1 i = 1 ∑ 100 0.9 ⋅ ( 0.99 ) i − 1 = 100 0.9 ⋅ 1 − 0.99 1 − ( 0.99 9 100 = 100 0.9 × × 0.01 1 − 0.3665 = 0.570 ; i = 1 ∑ n p i ( 1 − p i ) = i = 1 ∑ 100 0.9 ⋅ ( 0.99 ) i − 1 ⋅ [ 1 − 0.9 ⋅ ( 0.99 ) i − 1 ] = = i = 1 ∑ n 0.9 ⋅ ( 0.99 ) i − 1 − i = 1 ∑ 100 ( 0.9 ) 2 ( 0.99 ) 2 ( i − 1 ) = 0.9 ⋅ 1 − 0.99 1 − ( 0.99 ) 100 − − ( 0.9 ) 2 ⋅ 1 − ( 0.99 ) 2 1 − ( 0.99 ) 200 = 21.39
Therefore, in our case, the inequality of the Poisson theorem takes the form
P ( ∣ m n − 0.570 ∣ < ε ) ⩾ 1 − 21.39 ε 2 ⋅ 100 2
P\left(\left|\frac{m}{n}-0.570\right|<\varepsilon\right) \geqslant 1-\frac{21.39}{\varepsilon^{2} \cdot 100^{2}}
P ( n m − 0.570 < ε ) ⩾ 1 − ε 2 ⋅ 10 0 2 21.39
If we choose ε \varepsilon ε such that 1 − 21.39 ε 2 ⋅ 100 2 = 0.8 1-\frac{21.39}{\varepsilon^{2} \cdot 100^{2}}=0.8 1 − ε 2 ⋅ 10 0 2 21.39 = 0.8 , then the probability P ( ∣ m n − 0.570 ∣ < ε ) P\left(\left|\frac{m}{n}-0.570\right|<\varepsilon\right) P ( n m − 0.570 < ε ) will be no less than 0.8. From the equation above, we find:
0.2 = 21.39 100 2 ⋅ ε 2 ; ε 2 = 21.39 0.2 ⋅ 100 2 = 0.0107 ; ε = 0.103
0.2=\frac{21.39}{100^{2} \cdot \varepsilon^{2}} ; \quad \varepsilon^{2}=\frac{21.39}{0.2 \cdot 100^{2}}=0.0107 ; \varepsilon=0.103
0.2 = 10 0 2 ⋅ ε 2 21.39 ; ε 2 = 0.2 ⋅ 10 0 2 21.39 = 0.0107 ; ε = 0.103
Thus, with a probability of no less than 0.8, we can assert that
∣ m n − 0.57 ∣ < 0.103 ; ∣ m − 57 ∣ < 10.3 ; 46.7 < m < 67.3
\left|\frac{m}{n}-0.57\right|<0.103 ;|m-57|<10.3 ; 46.7<m<67.3
n m − 0.57 < 0.103 ; ∣ m − 57∣ < 10.3 ; 46.7 < m < 67.3
i.e., the number of parts of the highest grade is between 47 and 67.