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Combinatorics Difficulty 3.6 AMC 10/12 Find the answer

A red ball and a green ball are randomly and independently tossed into bins numbered with the positive integers so that for each ball, the probability that it is tossed into bin kk is 2k2^{-k} for k=1,2,3....k = 1,2,3.... What is the probability that the red ball is tossed into a higher-numbered bin than the green ball?

Pick one

Solution

Solution 1
By symmetry, the probability of the red ball landing in a higher-numbered bin is the same as the probability of the green ball landing in a higher-numbered bin. Clearly, the probability of both landing in the same bin is k=12k2k=k=122k=13\sum_{k=1}^{\infty}{2^{-k} \cdot 2^{-k}} = \sum_{k=1}^{\infty}2^{-2k} = \frac{1}{3} (by the geometric series sum formula). Therefore, since the other two probabilities have to both the same, they have to be 1132=(C) 13\frac{1-\frac{1}{3}}{2} = \boxed{\textbf{(C) } \frac{1}{3}}.

Note: the formula is a11r\frac{a_{1}}{1-r} where a1a_{1} is the first term and rr is the common ratio.
Derivation of the geometric series sum formula:
Let S=S=a1+a1r+a1r2+a1r3+...S = S=a_{1}+a_{1}r+a_{1}r^{2}+a_{1}r^{3}+... and so on to infinity.
Then rS=a1r+a1r2+a1r3+...rS=a_{1}r+a_{1}r^{2}+a_{1}r^{3}+... and so on to infinity. Notice that the terms in the second expression are the same as all the terms in the first EXCEPT for a1a_{1}.
Subtract SrS=a1S-rS=a_{1}, factor S(1r)=a1S\left(1-r\right)=a_{1}, and finally S=a11rS=\frac{a_{1}}{1-r}.
Post scriptum. The formula only works if r is less than 1; otherwise, the series will diverge to infinity or negative infinity.
~JH. L

Solution 2
Suppose the green ball goes in bin ii, for some i1i \ge 1. The probability of this occurring is 12i\frac{1}{2^i}. Given that this occurs, the probability that the red ball goes in a higher-numbered bin is 12i+1+12i+2+=12i\frac{1}{2^{i+1}} + \frac{1}{2^{i+2}} + \ldots = \frac{1}{2^i} (by the geometric series sum formula). Thus the probability that the green ball goes in bin ii, and the red ball goes in a bin greater than ii, is (12i)2=14i\left(\frac{1}{2^i}\right)^2 = \frac{1}{4^i}. Summing from i=1i=1 to infinity, we get
i=114i=(C) 13\sum_{i=1}^{\infty} \frac{1}{4^i} = \boxed{\textbf{(C) } \frac{1}{3}}
where we again used the geometric series sum formula. (Alternatively, if this sum equals nn, then by writing out the terms and multiplying both sides by 44, we see 4n=n+14n = n+1, which gives n=13n = \frac{1}{3}.)

Solution 3
For red ball in bin kk, Pr(Green Below Red)=i=1k12i\Pr(\text{Green Below Red})=\sum\limits_{i=1}^{k-1}2^{-i} (GBR) and Pr(Red in Bin k=2k\Pr(\text{Red in Bin k}=2^{-k} (RB).
Pr(GBRRB)=k=12ki=1k12i=k=12k12(1(1/2)k111/2)\Pr(\text{GBR}|\text{RB})=\sum\limits_{k=1}^{\infty}2^{-k}\sum\limits_{i=1}^{k-1}2^{-i}=\sum\limits_{k=1}^{\infty}2^{-k}\cdot\frac{1}{2}(\frac{1-(1/2)^{k-1}}{1-1/2})
k=112k2k=11(22)k    12/3=(C)13\sum\limits_{k=1}^{\infty}\frac{1}{2^{-k}}-2\sum\limits_{k=1}^\infty\frac{1}{(2^2)^{-k}}\implies 1-2/3=\boxed{(\textbf{C}) \frac{1}{3}}

Solution 4
The probability that the two balls will go into adjacent bins is 12×4+14×8+18×16+...=18+132+1128+=16\frac{1}{2\times4} + \frac{1}{4\times8} + \frac{1}{8 \times 16} + ... = \frac{1}{8} + \frac{1}{32} + \frac{1}{128} + \cdots = \frac{1}{6} by the geometric series sum formula. Similarly, the probability that the two balls will go into bins that have a distance of 22 from each other is 12×8+14×16+18×32+=116+164+1256+=112\frac{1}{2 \times 8} + \frac{1}{4 \times 16} + \frac{1}{8 \times 32} + \cdots = \frac{1}{16} + \frac{1}{64} + \frac{1}{256} + \cdots = \frac{1}{12} (again recognizing a geometric series). We can see that each time we add a bin between the two balls, the probability halves. Thus, our answer is 16+112+124+\frac{1}{6} + \frac{1}{12} + \frac{1}{24} + \cdots, which, by the geometric series sum formula, is (C) 13\boxed{\textbf{(C) } \frac{1}{3}}.
-fidgetboss_4000

Solution 5 (quick, conceptual)
Define a win as a ball appearing in higher numbered box.
Start from the first box.
There are 44 possible results in the box: Red, Green, Red and Green, or none, with an equal probability of 14\frac{1}{4} for each. If none of the balls is in the first box, the game restarts at the second box with the same kind of probability distribution, so if pp is the probability that Red wins, we can write p=14+14pp = \frac{1}{4} + \frac{1}{4}p: there is a 14\frac{1}{4} probability that "Red" wins immediately, a 00 probability in the cases "Green" or "Red and Green", and in the "None" case (which occurs with 14\frac{1}{4} probability), we then start again, giving the same probability pp. Hence, solving the equation, we get p=(C) 13p = \boxed{\textbf{(C) } \frac{1}{3}}.

Solution 6
Write out the infinite geometric series as 12\frac{1}{2}, 14,18,116,\frac{1}{4}, \frac{1}{8}, \frac{1}{16}, \cdots. To find the probablilty that red goes in a higher-numbered bin than green, we can simply remove all odd-index terms (i.e term 11, term 33, etc.), and then sum the remaining terms - this is in fact precisely equivalent to the method of Solution 2. Writing this out as another infinite geometric sequence, we are left with 14,116,164,\frac{1}{4}, \frac{1}{16}, \frac{1}{64}, \cdots. Summing, we get i=114i=(C) 13\sum_{i=1}^{\infty} \frac{1}{4^i} = \boxed{\textbf{(C) } \frac{1}{3}}

Solution 7
Fixing the green ball to fall into bin 11 gives a probability of 12(122+123+...)\frac{1}{2}\left(\frac{1}{2^2}+\frac{1}{2^3} +...\right) for the red ball to fall into a higher bin. Fixing the green ball to fall into bin 22 gives a probability of 122(123+124+...)\frac{1}{2^2}\left(\frac{1}{2^3}+\frac{1}{2^4} +...\right). Factoring out the denominator of the first fraction in each probability gives 123(1+12+122+...)+125(1+12+122+...)+...\frac{1}{2^3}\left(1+\frac{1}{2}+\frac{1}{2^2}+...\right)+\frac{1}{2^5}\left(1+\frac{1}{2}+\frac{1}{2^2}+...\right)+... so factoring out (1+12+122+123+...)\left(1+\frac{1}{2}+\frac{1}{2^2}+\frac{1}{2^3}+...\right) results in the probability simplifying to (123+125+127+...)(1+12+122+123+...)\left(\frac{1}{2^3}+\frac{1}{2^5}+\frac{1}{2^7}+...\right)\left(1+\frac{1}{2}+\frac{1}{2^2}+\frac{1}{2^3}+...\right) and using the formula a1r\frac{a}{1-r} to find both series, we obtain (123114)(1112)\left(\frac{\frac{1}{2^3}}{1-\frac{1}{4}}\right)\left(\frac{1}{1-\frac{1}{2}}\right) which simplifies to (C) 13\boxed{\textbf{(C) } \frac{1}{3}} -- OGBooger

Solution 8
We can think of this problem as "what is the probability that the green ball's bin is less than the red ball's bin". We do not consider the case where the red ball goes into bin 11 because the green ball has no where to go then. The chance that the green one is below the red one if the red one goes to bin 22 is 14\frac{1}{4} chance that the red ball even goes in bin 22 and 12\frac{1}{2} chance that the green ball goes into any bin less than 22. Similarly, if the red goes into bin 33, there is a 18(14+12)\frac{1}{8} \cdot \left(\frac{1}{4} + \frac{1}{2}\right) chance, or 332\frac{3}{32}, continuing like this, we get this sequence:
18,332,7128,...\frac{1}{8}, \frac{3}{32}, \frac{7}{128}, ...
Let SS equal the sum of our series:
S=18+332+7128+...S = \frac{1}{8} + \frac{3}{32} + \frac{7}{128} + .... That means we can write another equation:
S4=132+3128+...\frac{S}{4} = \frac{1}{32} + \frac{3}{128} + ...
Subtracting S4\frac{S}{4} from SS, yields:
SS4=18+232+4128+...S - \frac{S}{4} = \frac{1}{8} + \frac{2}{32} + \frac{4}{128} + ...
We see that the above series is a infinite geometric sequence with common ratio 12\frac{1}{2}. Therefore, the sum of that infinite series is 1812\frac{\frac{1}{8}}{\frac{1}{2}}, which equals 14\frac{1}{4}. Our equation is now SS4=14S - \frac{S}{4} = \frac{1}{4}. Solving for SS shows that S=13S = \frac{1}{3}.
Our answer is (C) 13\boxed{\textbf{(C) }\frac{1}{3}}
~ericshi1685

Solution 9 (quick, symmetry)
Denote G,RG,R the bin numbers of the green and red balls, respectively. The common probability distribution of G,BG,B can be constructed by keep splitting the remaining unassigned probability into two halves: one goes to the smallest number that has not been assigned, and the other goes to the rest. In other words, Pr(G=k)=Pr(G>k),kN\Pr(G=k) = \Pr (G>k), \forall k \in \mathbb{N}. Then,
Pr(G>R)=k=1Pr(G>k)Pr(R=k)=k=1Pr(G=k)Pr(R=k)=Pr(G=R)\Pr(G>R)=\sum_{k=1}^\infty \Pr(G>k) \Pr(R=k) = \sum_{k=1}^\infty \Pr(G=k) \Pr(R=k) = \Pr (G=R)
Similarly Pr(G<R)=Pr(G=R)\Pr(G<R)=\Pr(G=R). Therefore all three probabilities equal (C) 13\boxed{\textbf{(C) }\frac{1}{3}}.
~asops

Solution 10
The probability of the red ball falling ahead of the green ball is the same as the probability of the green ball falling ahead of the red ball. Therefore, if we calculate the probability of the red ball and the green ball falling inside the same box, we get the answer by subtracting that probability from 1. P(same)=(12)2+(14)2+(18)2+=14+116+164=13P(same) = \left(\frac{1}{2}\right)^2 + \left(\frac{1}{4}\right)^2 + \left(\frac{1}{8}\right)^2 + \cdots = \frac{1}{4} + \frac{1}{16} + \frac{1}{64} = \frac{1}{3}. Therefore, our answer is 1132=13\frac{1-\frac{1}{3}}{2} = \boxed{\frac{1}{3}}
-NL008

Solution 11 (This method might be a coincidence)
My method could be completely coincidental, but, there are 3 different cases we have to consider: Red in a higher numbered bin than Green, Red in the same numbered bin as Green, or Green in a higher bin than Red. Since only the first case satisfies these conditions, the answer is (C) 13.\boxed{\textbf{(C) }\frac{1}{3}}.

- ethancui0529

This is a coincidence, as the infinite geometric sum of the series that starts with 12\dfrac{1}{2} and has a common ratio of 12\dfrac{1}{2} is 13\dfrac{1}{3}. With any other starting term or ratio, this answer would not be valid.
~russellk

Solution 12 (a little bit like Archimedes's Cheese Argument)
Let's draw a square (if you want to, draw it larger) and divide it into four parts: Red on the top left corner, Green on the bottom right corner, Red and Green on the bottom left corner, and none on the top right. We then divide the "none" part also the same as we divided the original large square. Thus, the "none" probability decreases, and gradually it is divided into three parts: Red, Green, or Red and Green. We can visually see that the probability will be one third. The answer is (C) 13.\boxed{\textbf{(C) }\frac{1}{3}}.
~EDDY12597

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Source: NuminaMath-1.5, licensed Apache-2.0. Statement and solution reproduced as published; topic and difficulty added by this site.