Maths Olympiad Prep

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Combinatorics Difficulty 4.2 AIME Find the answer

Zou and Chou are practicing their 100100-meter sprints by running 66 races against each other. Zou wins the first race, and after that, the probability that one of them wins a race is 23\frac23 if they won the previous race but only 13\frac13 if they lost the previous race. The probability that Zou will win exactly 55 of the 66 races is mn\frac mn, where mm and nn are relatively prime positive integers. Find m+n.m+n.

A number or a short expression. Spacing and $ signs are ignored.

Solution

For the next five races, Zou wins four and loses one. Let WW and LL denote a win and a loss, respectively. There are five possible outcome sequences for Zou:

LWWWWLWWWW
WLWWWWLWWW
WWLWWWWLWW
WWWLWWWWLW
WWWWLWWWWL

We proceed with casework:
Case (1): Sequences #1-4, in which Zou does not lose the last race.
The probability that Zou loses a race is 13,\frac13, and the probability that Zou wins the next race is 13.\frac13. For each of the three other races, the probability that Zou wins is 23.\frac23.
There are four sequences in this case. The probability of one such sequence is (13)2(23)3.\left(\frac13\right)^2\left(\frac23\right)^3.
Case (2): Sequence #5, in which Zou loses the last race.
The probability that Zou loses a race is 13.\frac13. For each of the four other races, the probability that Zou wins is 23.\frac23.
There is one sequence in this case. The probability is (13)1(23)4.\left(\frac13\right)^1\left(\frac23\right)^4.
Answer
The requested probability is 4(13)2(23)3+(13)1(23)4=32243+16243=48243=1681,4\left(\frac13\right)^2\left(\frac23\right)^3+\left(\frac13\right)^1\left(\frac23\right)^4=\frac{32}{243}+\frac{16}{243}=\frac{48}{243}=\frac{16}{81}, from which the answer is 16+81=097.16+81=\boxed{097}.
~MRENTHUSIASM

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Source: NuminaMath-1.5, licensed Apache-2.0. Statement and solution reproduced as published; topic and difficulty added by this site.