Maths Olympiad Prep

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Combinatorics Difficulty 4.5 AIME Find the answer

What is the probability that exactly one person gets their hat back when 6 people randomly pick hats?

A number or a short expression. Spacing and $ signs are ignored.

Solution

There are 6 people that could get their hat back, so we must multiply 6 by the number of ways that the other 5 people can arrange their hats such that no one gets his/her hat back. So, the number of ways this will happen is ( 66 \cdot derangement of 5 ), or 644=2646 * 44=264. Since there are 6!=7206!=720 possible arrangements of hats, the probability of exactly one person getting their hat back is 264720=1130\frac{264}{720}=\frac{11}{30}.

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