Let be the largest prime factor of . Estimate An estimate of will receive points.
Solution
We remark that Let be a random variable that evaluates to for a randomly chosen ; we essentially want to estimate where denotes a variable with distribution identical to (this is assuming that the largest prime factors of and are roughly independent). A crude estimate can be compiled by approximating that is roughly whenever is prime and 0 otherwise. Since a number in this interval should be prime with "probability" , we may replace each with a Bernoulli random variable that is 1 with probability and 0 otherwise. This gives us an estimate of However, this estimate has one notable flaw: and are more likely to share the same primality than arbitrarily chosen numbers, since they share the same parity. So, if we restrict our sums to only considering for odd numbers, we essentially replace each with a Bernoulli random variable with expectation , giving us an estimate of , good for 5 points. This estimate can be substantially improved if we consider other possible factors, which increases the correlation between and and thus decreases one's estimate. The correct value of is 18215.