Maths Olympiad Prep

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Problem 1392

AIME late
Combinatorics Difficulty 5.3 Prove it HMMT · United States

Values a1,…,a2013a_{1}, \ldots, a_{2013} are chosen independently and at random from the set {1,…,2013}\{1, \ldots, 2013\}. What is expected number of distinct values in the set {a1,…,a2013}\left\{a_{1}, \ldots, a_{2013}\right\}?

This one wants a proof. Work it on paper, then read the official solution and mark yourself. Be honest about it: the record is only any use to you if it is.

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Official solution

Solution:

Answer: 20132013−2012201320132012\frac{2013^{2013}-2012^{2013}}{2013^{2012}}

For each n∈{1,2,…,2013}n \in \{1,2, \ldots, 2013\}, let Xn=1X_{n}=1 if nn appears in {a1,a2,…,a2013}\left\{a_{1}, a_{2}, \ldots, a_{2013}\right\} and 00 otherwise. Defined this way, E[Xn]\mathrm{E}\left[X_{n}\right] is the probability that nn appears in {a1,a2,…,a2013}\left\{a_{1}, a_{2}, \ldots, a_{2013}\right\}.

Since each aia_{i} (1≤i≤20131 \leq i \leq 2013) is not nn with probability 20122013\frac{2012}{2013}, the probability that nn is none of the aia_{i}'s is (20122013)2013\left(\frac{2012}{2013}\right)^{2013}, so E[Xn]\mathrm{E}\left[X_{n}\right], the probability that nn is one of the aia_{i}'s, is 1−(20122013)20131-\left(\frac{2012}{2013}\right)^{2013}.

The expected number of distinct values in {a1,…,a2013}\left\{a_{1}, \ldots, a_{2013}\right\} is the expected number of n∈{1,2,…,2013}n \in \{1,2, \ldots, 2013\} such that Xn=1X_{n}=1, that is, the expected value of X1+X2+⋯+X2013X_{1}+X_{2}+\cdots+X_{2013}.

By linearity of expectation,
E[X1+X2+⋯+X2013]=E[X1]+E[X2]+⋯+E[X2013]=2013(1−(20122013)2013)=20132013−2012201320132012. \mathrm{E}\left[X_{1}+X_{2}+\cdots+X_{2013}\right]=\mathrm{E}\left[X_{1}\right]+\mathrm{E}\left[X_{2}\right]+\cdots+\mathrm{E}\left[X_{2013}\right]=2013\left(1-\left(\frac{2012}{2013}\right)^{2013}\right)=\frac{2013^{2013}-2012^{2013}}{2013^{2012}}.

Source: MathNet, licensed CC-BY-4.0. Statement reproduced verbatim; metadata (topic, difficulty, ordering) added by this project.