Maths Olympiad Prep

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Problem 928

AMC 12 late, AIME early
Combinatorics Difficulty 4.8 Find the answer HMMT November · United States · 2015

A graph consists of 6 vertices. For each pair of vertices, a coin is flipped, and an edge connecting the two vertices is drawn if and only if the coin shows heads. Such a graph is good if, starting from any vertex VV connected to at least one other vertex, it is possible to draw a path starting and ending at VV that traverses each edge exactly once. What is the probability that the graph is good?

A number or a short expression. Fractions can be typed as 3/2, and spacing doesn't matter.

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Official solution

Solution:
First, we find the probability that all vertices have even degree. Arbitrarily number the vertices 1,2,3,4,5,61, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6. Flip the coin for all the edges out of vertex 11; this vertex ends up with even degree with probability 12\frac{1}{2}. Next we flip for all the remaining edges out of vertex 22; regardless of previous edges, vertex 22 ends up with even degree with probability 12\frac{1}{2}, and so on through vertex 55. Finally, if vertices 11 through 55 all have even degree, vertex 66 must also have even degree. So all vertices have even degree with probability 125=132\frac{1}{2^5} = \frac{1}{32}.

There are (62)=15\binom{6}{2} = 15 edges total, so there are 2152^{15} total possible graphs, of which 2102^{10} have all vertices with even degree. Observe that exactly 1010 of these latter graphs are not good, namely, the 12(63)\frac{1}{2} \binom{6}{3} graphs composed of two separate triangles. So 210102^{10} - 10 of our graphs are good, and the probability that a graph is good is 21010215\frac{2^{10} - 10}{2^{15}}.

Source: MathNet, licensed CC-BY-4.0. Statement reproduced verbatim; metadata (topic, difficulty, ordering) added by this project.