Maths Olympiad Prep

Track / Stage 4 / 340 of 340 #600 of 1964

Problem 600

AMC 12 late, AIME early
Combinatorics Difficulty 5.0 Find the answer

The probability of at least one hit with two shots is 0.96. Find the probability of four hits with five shots.

A number or a short expression. Spacing, $ signs and \frac vs / are all fine.

Official solution

Solution. By the Bernoulli formula (19), we have p5(4)=C54p4q1p_{5}(4)=C_{5}^{4} \cdot p^{4} \cdot q^{1}. Here, the probability pp of hitting the target with one shot is unknown. To find it, we use the condition of the problem.

Let's denote the events:

A1A_{1} - hitting the target with the first shot;

A2A_{2} - hitting the target with the second shot;

A1+A2A_{1}+A_{2} - hitting the target at least once in two shots.

By formula (12), we find p(A1+A2)=1q2p\left(A_{1}+A_{2}\right)=1-q^{2}, i.e., 0.96=1q20.96=1-q^{2}, from which q=0.2q=0.2 and p=1q=0.8p=1-q=0.8. Therefore, p5(4)=5(0.8)40.2=p_{5}(4)=5 \cdot(0.8)^{4} \cdot 0.2= =0.4096=0.4096.

Answer. 0.4096.

Source: NuminaMath-1.5, licensed Apache-2.0. Statement and solution reproduced as published; topic, difficulty and ordering added by this site.