A cricket randomly hops between leaves, on each turn hopping to one of the other leaves with equal probability. After hops what is the probability that the cricket has returned to the leaf where it started?
2022 AMC 8 Problem 25 Picture.jpg
A cricket randomly hops between leaves, on each turn hopping to one of the other leaves with equal probability. After hops what is the probability that the cricket has returned to the leaf where it started?
2022 AMC 8 Problem 25 Picture.jpg
Pick one
Let denote the leaf where the cricket starts and denote one of the other leaves. Note that:
If the cricket is at then the probability that it hops to next is
If the cricket is at then the probability that it hops to next is
If the cricket is at then the probability that it hops to next is
We apply casework to the possible paths of the cricket:
The probability for this case is
The probability for this case is
Together, the probability that the cricket returns to after hops is
~MRENTHUSIASM