Maths Olympiad Prep

Track / Stage 3 / 37 of 260 #37 of 1964

Problem 37

AMC 10/12, early questions
Combinatorics Difficulty 3.1 Multiple choice

A cricket randomly hops between 44 leaves, on each turn hopping to one of the other 33 leaves with equal probability. After 44 hops what is the probability that the cricket has returned to the leaf where it started?

2022 AMC 8 Problem 25 Picture.jpg

Pick one

Official solution

Let AA denote the leaf where the cricket starts and BB denote one of the other 33 leaves. Note that:

If the cricket is at A,A, then the probability that it hops to BB next is 1.1.
If the cricket is at B,B, then the probability that it hops to AA next is 13.\frac13.
If the cricket is at B,B, then the probability that it hops to BB next is 23.\frac23.
We apply casework to the possible paths of the cricket:

ABABAA \rightarrow B \rightarrow A \rightarrow B \rightarrow A
The probability for this case is 113113=19.1\cdot\frac13\cdot1\cdot\frac13=\frac19.
ABBBAA \rightarrow B \rightarrow B \rightarrow B \rightarrow A
The probability for this case is 1232313=427.1\cdot\frac23\cdot\frac23\cdot\frac13=\frac{4}{27}.

Together, the probability that the cricket returns to AA after 44 hops is 19+427=(E) 727.\frac19+\frac{4}{27}=\boxed{\textbf{(E) }\frac{7}{27}}.
~MRENTHUSIASM

Source: NuminaMath-1.5, licensed Apache-2.0. Statement and solution reproduced as published; topic, difficulty and ordering added by this site.