Maths Olympiad Prep

Track / Stage 5 / 114 of 400 #714 of 1964

Problem 714

AIME late
Combinatorics Difficulty 5.3 Find the answer

12.1.3. An urn contains 6 white and 5 black balls. Three balls are randomly drawn sequentially without replacement. Find the probability that the third ball drawn will be white.

A number or a short expression. Fractions can be typed as 3/2, and spacing doesn't matter.

Official solution

Solution. If the third ball must be white, then the first two balls can be white, or white and black, or black and white, or black, i.e., there are four groups of non-
mutually exclusive events. Applying the multiplication theorem of probabilities to them, we get:

P=P16P2σP3σ+(P1σP2uP3σ+P14P2σP3σ)+P14P2uP3σ==61151049+61151059+51161059+51141069=540990=611 \begin{aligned} P & =P_{16} \cdot P_{2 \sigma} \cdot P_{3 \sigma}+\left(P_{1 \sigma} \cdot P_{2 u} \cdot P_{3 \sigma}+P_{14} \cdot P_{2 \sigma} \cdot P_{3 \sigma}\right)+P_{14} \cdot P_{2 u} \cdot P_{3 \sigma}= \\ & =\frac{6}{11} \cdot \frac{5}{10} \cdot \frac{4}{9}+\frac{6}{11} \cdot \frac{5}{10} \cdot \frac{5}{9}+\frac{5}{11} \cdot \frac{6}{10} \cdot \frac{5}{9}+\frac{5}{11} \cdot \frac{4}{10} \cdot \frac{6}{9}=\frac{540}{990}=\frac{6}{11} \end{aligned}

## 12.2. Random Variables

Source: NuminaMath-1.5, licensed Apache-2.0. Statement and solution reproduced as published; topic, difficulty and ordering added by this site.