1. Define the Problem and Notation:
- There are 256 players ranked from 1 to 256.
- The player with the higher rank wins with probability 53.
- We need to determine the expected value of the rank of the winner.
2. Binary Representation and Initial Setup:
- Let an−1 be the player with rank n, where n∈{1,2,…,256}.
- The binary representation of n−1 is b7b6b5b4b3b2b1b0(2), where bi∈{0,1} for i∈{0,1,…,7}.
3. Round 1 Analysis:
- Players A0(2) and A1(2) play against each other, where A=b7b6b5b4b3b2b1(2).
- A0(2)<A1(2).
- Probability of A0(2) winning: 53.
- Probability of A1(2) winning: 52.
- Probability to win in the first round: p1=52b0⋅31−b0.
4. Round 2 Analysis:
- Players B0x(2) and B1y(2) play against each other, where B=b7b6b5b4b3b2(2) and x,y∈{0,1}.
- B0x(2)<B1y(2).
- Probability of B0x(2) winning: 53.
- Probability of B1y(2) winning: 52.
- Probability to win in the first two matches: P2(n−1)=522b0+b1⋅32−(b0+b1).
5. Generalizing for 8 Rounds:
- Probability for player an−1 to be the winner:
P8(n−1)=582b0+b1+⋯+b7⋅38−(b0+b1+⋯+b7)
6. Expected Value Calculation:
- Expected value for n−1:
nex−1=m=0∑255m⋅582b0+b1+⋯+b7⋅38−(b0+b1+⋯+b7)
- Simplifying, we get:
nex−1=k=0∑8Sk⋅582k⋅38−k
where Sk is the sum of numbers m for which b0+b1+⋯+b7=k.
7. **Calculating Sk:**
- Number of numbers m for which b0+b1+⋯+b7=k is Nk=(k8).
- Sum of these numbers:
Sk=255⋅8k⋅(k8)=255⋅(k−17)
8. Final Summation:
- Substituting Sk:
nex−1=k=1∑8255⋅(k−17)⋅582k⋅38−k
- Simplifying further:
nex−1=255⋅52⋅k=0∑7(k7)⋅(52)k⋅(53)7−k
- Using the binomial theorem:
k=0∑7(k7)(52)k(53)7−k=(52+53)7=1
- Therefore:
nex−1=255⋅52=102
- Hence, the expected value of the rank of the winner is:
nex=102+1=103
The final answer is 103