An information station employs four different codes, A, B, C and D, for communication, but each week uses only one of them. The code used in a definite week is randomly selected with equal chance among the three ones that have not been used in the last week. Suppose the code used in the first week is A. Then the probability that A is also used in the seventh week is _______. (expressed as an irreducible fraction)
A number or a short expression. Spacing and $ signs are ignored.
Solution
Let Pk denote the probability that code A is used in the k\text{th}week.ThentheprobabilitythatAisnotusedinthekth week is 1−Pk. Therefore, we have Pk+1=31(1−Pk). Or Pk+1−41=−31(Pk−41). As P1=1, {Pk−41} is then a geometric sequence with 43 as the first term and −31 as the common ratio. So we have Pk−41=43(−31)k−1. Or Pk=43(−31)k−1+41. Therefore, P7=24361.
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