Maths Olympiad Prep

Library / /39 of 68

, 2017

Combinatorics Difficulty 5.5 AIME, harder Prove it United States

Problem:

Kelvin the Frog is hopping on a number line (extending to infinity in both directions). Kelvin starts at 00. Every minute, he has a 13\frac{1}{3} chance of moving 11 unit left, a 13\frac{1}{3} chance of moving 11 unit right and 13\frac{1}{3} chance of getting eaten. Find the expected number of times Kelvin returns to 00 (not including the start) before getting eaten.

Solution

Solution:

First we compute probability that the mouse returns to 00 before being eaten. Then probability that it is at 00 in 2n2n minutes without being eaten is given by 132n(2nn)\frac{1}{3^{2n}} \binom{2n}{n}. Therefore, the overall expectation is given by
n1(2nn)9n=1+n0(2nn)9n=1+114/9=1+35=3555 \begin{aligned} & \sum_{n \geq 1} \binom{2n}{n} 9^{-n} = -1 + \sum_{n \geq 0} \binom{2n}{n} 9^{-n} \\ = & -1 + \frac{1}{\sqrt{1-4/9}} = -1 + \frac{3}{\sqrt{5}} = \frac{3\sqrt{5}-5}{5} \end{aligned}
where we use the well known fact that
n0(2nn)xn=114x \sum_{n \geq 0} \binom{2n}{n} x^n = \frac{1}{\sqrt{1-4x}}
for x=19x=\frac{1}{9}.

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Source: MathNet, licensed CC-BY-4.0. Statement reproduced verbatim; metadata (topic, difficulty) added by this project.