CombinatoricsDifficulty 5.5AIME, harderProve itUnited States
Problem:
Kelvin the Frog is hopping on a number line (extending to infinity in both directions). Kelvin starts at 0. Every minute, he has a 31 chance of moving 1 unit left, a 31 chance of moving 1 unit right and 31 chance of getting eaten. Find the expected number of times Kelvin returns to 0 (not including the start) before getting eaten.
Solution
Solution:
First we compute probability that the mouse returns to 0 before being eaten. Then probability that it is at 0 in 2n minutes without being eaten is given by 32n1(n2n). Therefore, the overall expectation is given by =n≥1∑(n2n)9−n=−1+n≥0∑(n2n)9−n−1+1−4/91=−1+53=535−5 where we use the well known fact that n≥0∑(n2n)xn=1−4x1 for x=91.
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