Maths Olympiad Prep

Library / /185 of 1394

Combinatorics Difficulty 4.9 AIME Find the answer United States

Problem:

Isabella has a bag with 20 blue diamonds and 25 purple diamonds. She repeats the following process 44 times: she removes a diamond from the bag uniformly at random, then puts one blue diamond and one purple diamond into the bag. Compute the expected number of blue diamonds in the bag after all 44 repetitions.

A number or a short expression. Fractions can be typed as 3/2, and spacing doesn't matter.

Solution

Solution:

Let a=20a = 20 and b=25b = 25 be the initial numbers of blue and purple diamonds, respectively, and let c=44c = 44 be the number of times Isabella performs the operation. Suppose that at some point, the bag contains xx blue diamonds and yy purple diamonds, for x+y=zx + y = z total diamonds. After one step, the bag will have z+1z + 1 diamonds. The expected change in the number of blue diamonds in this step is (x/z)+1=y/z(- x / z) + 1 = y / z, and likewise this quantity for purple diamonds is x/zx / z. Thus, the expected change in the difference between the number of blue and purple diamonds is (yx)/z(y - x) / z. Since this difference was initially xyx - y, the expected value of this difference is multiplied by (z1)/z(z - 1) / z at each step (regardless of xyx - y). Since zz starts at a+ba + b and ends at a+b+ca + b + c, the expected difference after cc operations is
(ab)z=a+ba+b+c1z1z=(a+b1)(ab)(a+b+c1), (a - b)\cdot \prod_{z = a + b}^{a + b + c - 1}\frac{z - 1}{z} = \frac{(a + b - 1)(a - b)}{(a + b + c - 1)},
and as the total number of diamonds is a+b+ca + b + c, the expected number of blue diamonds at the end is
a+b+c2+(a+b1)(ab)2(a+b+c1). \frac{a + b + c}{2} + \frac{(a + b - 1)(a - b)}{2(a + b + c - 1)}.
Plugging in a=20a = 20, b=25b = 25, and c=44c = 44 gives us the answer, 1734\boxed{\frac{173}{4}}.

Want a route through all this instead of an archive? The track puts 2,000 problems in a working order, from AMC 10 level to the IMO shortlist.

Source: MathNet, licensed CC-BY-4.0. Statement reproduced verbatim; metadata (topic, difficulty) added by this project.