CombinatoricsDifficulty 6.6National olympiadFind the answer
Ali and Veli goes to hunting. The probability that each will successfully hit a duck is 1/2 on any given shot. During the hunt, Ali shoots 12 times, and Veli shoots 13 times. What is the probability that Veli hits more ducks than Ali?
Pick one
Solution
1. Define the random variables: Let X be the number of ducks hit by Ali, and Y be the number of ducks hit by Veli. Both X and Y follow a binomial distribution: X∼Binomial(12,21) Y∼Binomial(13,21)
2. Calculate the expected values and variances: The expected value and variance for a binomial distribution Binomial(n,p) are given by: E[X]=npandVar(X)=np(1−p) For Ali: E[X]=12⋅21=6andVar(X)=12⋅21⋅21=3 For Veli: E[Y]=13⋅21=6.5andVar(Y)=13⋅21⋅21=3.25
3. Standardize the variables: To find the probability that Y>X, we can standardize X and Y to approximate them using the normal distribution (Central Limit Theorem): ZX=3X−6andZY=3.25Y−6.5
4. Calculate the difference of the standardized variables: Let Z=ZY−ZX. Since ZX and ZY are approximately standard normal variables, Z will also be approximately normal with: E[Z]=E[ZY]−E[ZX]=0 Var(Z)=Var(ZY)+Var(ZX)=1+1=2 Thus, Z∼N(0,2).
5. Find the probability: We need to find P(Y>X), which is equivalent to P(Z>0). Since Z∼N(0,2), we standardize Z to a standard normal variable Z′: Z′=2Z∼N(0,1) Therefore, P(Z>0)=P(2Z>0)=P(Z′>0)=0.5
Conclusion: 21
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