Terence Tao is playing rock-paper-scissors. Because his mental energy is focused on solving the twin primes conjecture, he uses the following very simple strategy:
·He plays rock first.
·On each subsequent turn, he plays a different move than the previous one, each with probability ½.
What is the probability that his 5th move will be rock?
Problem 1565
Official solution
1. First Move:
Terence's first move is rock. This is given and has a probability of 1.
2. Second Move:
On the second move, Terence will play either paper or scissors, each with a probability of .
3. Third Move:
We now consider two cases for the third move:
- Case 1: The second move is paper.
- The third move will be either rock or scissors, each with a probability of .
- Case 2: The second move is scissors.
- The third move will be either rock or paper, each with a probability of .
4. Fourth Move:
We now consider the fourth move for each sub-case of the third move:
- Case 1.1: The second move is paper, and the third move is rock.
- The fourth move will be either paper or scissors, each with a probability of .
- Case 1.2: The second move is paper, and the third move is scissors.
- The fourth move will be either rock or paper, each with a probability of .
- Case 2.1: The second move is scissors, and the third move is rock.
- The fourth move will be either paper or scissors, each with a probability of .
- Case 2.2: The second move is scissors, and the third move is paper.
- The fourth move will be either rock or scissors, each with a probability of .
5. Fifth Move:
We now consider the fifth move for each sub-case of the fourth move:
- Case 1.1.1: The second move is paper, the third move is rock, and the fourth move is paper.
- The fifth move will be rock with a probability of .
- Case 1.1.2: The second move is paper, the third move is rock, and the fourth move is scissors.
- The fifth move will be rock with a probability of .
- Case 1.2.1: The second move is paper, the third move is scissors, and the fourth move is rock.
- The fifth move cannot be rock.
- Case 1.2.2: The second move is paper, the third move is scissors, and the fourth move is paper.
- The fifth move will be rock with a probability of .
- Case 2.1.1: The second move is scissors, the third move is rock, and the fourth move is paper.
- The fifth move will be rock with a probability of .
- Case 2.1.2: The second move is scissors, the third move is rock, and the fourth move is scissors.
- The fifth move will be rock with a probability of .
- Case 2.2.1: The second move is scissors, the third move is paper, and the fourth move is rock.
- The fifth move cannot be rock.
- Case 2.2.2: The second move is scissors, the third move is paper, and the fourth move is scissors.
- The fifth move will be rock with a probability of .
6. Combining Probabilities:
- For Case 1.1:
- Probability of fifth move being rock:
- For Case 1.2:
- Probability of fifth move being rock:
- For Case 2.1:
- Probability of fifth move being rock:
- For Case 2.2:
- Probability of fifth move being rock:
7. Total Probability:
The final answer is .