Maths Olympiad Prep

Track / Stage 7 / 165 of 300 #1565 of 1964

Problem 1565

National olympiad second round; IMO P1/P4
Combinatorics Difficulty 7.3 Find the answer

Terence Tao is playing rock-paper-scissors. Because his mental energy is focused on solving the twin primes conjecture, he uses the following very simple strategy:

   ·He plays rock first.
   ·On each subsequent turn, he plays a different move than the previous one, each with probability ½.

What is the probability that his 5th move will be rock?

A number or a short expression. Spacing, $ signs and \frac vs / are all fine.

Official solution

1. First Move:
Terence's first move is rock. This is given and has a probability of 1.

2. Second Move:
On the second move, Terence will play either paper or scissors, each with a probability of 12 \frac{1}{2} .

3. Third Move:
We now consider two cases for the third move:
- Case 1: The second move is paper.
- The third move will be either rock or scissors, each with a probability of 12 \frac{1}{2} .
- Case 2: The second move is scissors.
- The third move will be either rock or paper, each with a probability of 12 \frac{1}{2} .

4. Fourth Move:
We now consider the fourth move for each sub-case of the third move:
- Case 1.1: The second move is paper, and the third move is rock.
- The fourth move will be either paper or scissors, each with a probability of 12 \frac{1}{2} .
- Case 1.2: The second move is paper, and the third move is scissors.
- The fourth move will be either rock or paper, each with a probability of 12 \frac{1}{2} .
- Case 2.1: The second move is scissors, and the third move is rock.
- The fourth move will be either paper or scissors, each with a probability of 12 \frac{1}{2} .
- Case 2.2: The second move is scissors, and the third move is paper.
- The fourth move will be either rock or scissors, each with a probability of 12 \frac{1}{2} .

5. Fifth Move:
We now consider the fifth move for each sub-case of the fourth move:
- Case 1.1.1: The second move is paper, the third move is rock, and the fourth move is paper.
- The fifth move will be rock with a probability of 12 \frac{1}{2} .
- Case 1.1.2: The second move is paper, the third move is rock, and the fourth move is scissors.
- The fifth move will be rock with a probability of 12 \frac{1}{2} .
- Case 1.2.1: The second move is paper, the third move is scissors, and the fourth move is rock.
- The fifth move cannot be rock.
- Case 1.2.2: The second move is paper, the third move is scissors, and the fourth move is paper.
- The fifth move will be rock with a probability of 12 \frac{1}{2} .
- Case 2.1.1: The second move is scissors, the third move is rock, and the fourth move is paper.
- The fifth move will be rock with a probability of 12 \frac{1}{2} .
- Case 2.1.2: The second move is scissors, the third move is rock, and the fourth move is scissors.
- The fifth move will be rock with a probability of 12 \frac{1}{2} .
- Case 2.2.1: The second move is scissors, the third move is paper, and the fourth move is rock.
- The fifth move cannot be rock.
- Case 2.2.2: The second move is scissors, the third move is paper, and the fourth move is scissors.
- The fifth move will be rock with a probability of 12 \frac{1}{2} .

6. Combining Probabilities:
- For Case 1.1: 12×12=14 \frac{1}{2} \times \frac{1}{2} = \frac{1}{4}
- Probability of fifth move being rock: 14×12=18 \frac{1}{4} \times \frac{1}{2} = \frac{1}{8}
- For Case 1.2: 12×12=14 \frac{1}{2} \times \frac{1}{2} = \frac{1}{4}
- Probability of fifth move being rock: 14×12=18 \frac{1}{4} \times \frac{1}{2} = \frac{1}{8}
- For Case 2.1: 12×12=14 \frac{1}{2} \times \frac{1}{2} = \frac{1}{4}
- Probability of fifth move being rock: 14×12=18 \frac{1}{4} \times \frac{1}{2} = \frac{1}{8}
- For Case 2.2: 12×12=14 \frac{1}{2} \times \frac{1}{2} = \frac{1}{4}
- Probability of fifth move being rock: 14×12=18 \frac{1}{4} \times \frac{1}{2} = \frac{1}{8}

7. Total Probability:
18+18+18+18=48=12 \frac{1}{8} + \frac{1}{8} + \frac{1}{8} + \frac{1}{8} = \frac{4}{8} = \frac{1}{2}

The final answer is 12 \boxed{\frac{1}{2}} .

Source: NuminaMath-1.5, licensed Apache-2.0. Statement and solution reproduced as published; topic, difficulty and ordering added by this site.