Maths Olympiad Prep

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Combinatorics Difficulty 2.7 Junior Find the answer Canada

Three standard six-sided dice are rolled. The sum of the three
numbers rolled, SS, is determined.
The probability that S gt;5\text{S gt;5} is
closest to

Pick one

Solution

Suppose that when the three dice are rolled, the numbers rolled
are xx, yy and zz.

Since there are 6 possibilities for each of xx, yy
and zz, there are 666=2166 \cdot 6 \cdot 6 = 216 possible
outcomes.

Also, the sum, SS, of the three
rolls is at least 31=33 \cdot 1 = 3 and
at most 36=183 \cdot 6 = 18.

The outcome "S gt; 5\text{S gt; 5}" is the
complement of the outcome "S5S \leq 5".

Thus, the probability that S gt;5\text{S gt;5}
is 11 minus the probability that
S5S \leq 5.

It is easier to compute the probability that S5S \leq 5 directly by listing the rolls
that give this.

If S=3S = 3, then x+y+z=3x+y+z=3 and so (x,y,z)=(1,1,1)(x,y,z)=(1,1,1).

If S=4S = 4, then x+y+z=4x+y+z=4 and so xx, yy
and zz must be 11, 11
and 22 in some order. Thus, (x,y,z)=(2,1,1)(x,y,z) = (2,1,1) or (1,2,1)(1,2,1) or (1,1,2)(1,1,2).

If S=5S = 5, then x+y+z=5x+y+z=5 and so xx, yy
and zz must be 11, 11
and 33, or 11, 22
and 22 in some order. There are
33 arrangements in each case and so
66 triples in total.

Therefore, there are 1+3+6=101 + 3 + 6 = 10
triples with S5S \leq 5, and so the
probability that S gt; 5\text{S gt; 5} is equal
to 1102160.9541 - \frac{10}{216} \approx 0.954.

Of the given choices, this is closest to 0.950.95.

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Source: CEMC, University of Waterloo, licensed CC-BY-NC-4.0. Statement reproduced verbatim; metadata (topic, difficulty) added by this project.