Maths Olympiad Prep

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Problem 598

AMC 10/12, early questions
Combinatorics Difficulty 3.7 Find the answer CEMC Fermat · Canada · 2020

A cube has six faces. Each face has some dots on it. The numbers of dots on the six faces are 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, and 7. Harry removes one of the dots at random, with each dot equally likely to be removed. When the cube is rolled, each face is equally likely to be the top face. What is the probability that the top face has an odd number of dots on it?

47\frac{4}{7}
12\frac{1}{2}
1327\frac{13}{27}
1121\frac{11}{21}
37\frac{3}{7}

A number or a short expression. Fractions can be typed as 3/2, and spacing doesn't matter.

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Official solution

When a dot is removed from a face with an even number of dots, that face then has an odd number of dots.
When a dot is removed from a face with an odd number of dots, that face then has an even number of dots.
Initially, there are 3 faces with an even number of dots and 3 faces with an odd number of dots.
If a dot is removed from a face with an even number of dots, there are then 4 faces with an odd number of dots and 2 faces with an even number of dots. This means that the probability of rolling an odd number after a dot is removed is 46\frac{4}{6} in this case.
If a dot is removed from a face with an odd number of dots, there are then 2 faces with an odd number of dots and 4 faces with an even number of dots. This means that the probability of rolling an odd number after a dot is removed is 26\frac{2}{6} in this case.
Since there are 2+3+4+5+6+7=272+3+4+5+6+7=27 dots on the faces, then the probability that a dot is removed from the face with 2 dots is 227\frac{2}{27}, from the face with 3 dots is 327\frac{3}{27}, and so on.
Thus, the probability that a dot is removed from the face with 2 dots and then an odd number is rolled is the product of the probabilities, which is 22723\frac{2}{27} \cdot \frac{2}{3}, since there are now 4 odd faces and 2 even faces.
Similarly, the probability that a dot is removed from the face with 3 dots and then an odd number is rolled is 32713\frac{3}{27} \cdot \frac{1}{3}.
Continuing in this way, the probability of rolling an odd number after a dot is removed is 22723+32713+42723+52713+62723+72713\frac{2}{27} \cdot \frac{2}{3} + \frac{3}{27} \cdot \frac{1}{3} + \frac{4}{27} \cdot \frac{2}{3} + \frac{5}{27} \cdot \frac{1}{3} + \frac{6}{27} \cdot \frac{2}{3} + \frac{7}{27} \cdot \frac{1}{3}.
This equals 23(227+427+627)+13(327+527+727)=231227+131527=827+527=1327\frac{2}{3}\cdot(\frac{2}{27} + \frac{4}{27} + \frac{6}{27}) + \frac{1}{3}(\frac{3}{27} + \frac{5}{27} + \frac{7}{27}) = \frac{2}{3} \cdot \frac{12}{27} + \frac{1}{3} \cdot \frac{15}{27} = \frac{8}{27} + \frac{5}{27} = \frac{13}{27}.

Source: CEMC, University of Waterloo, licensed CC-BY-NC-4.0. Statement reproduced verbatim; metadata (topic, difficulty, ordering) added by this project.