Sonya the frog chooses a point uniformly at random lying within the square
in the coordinate plane and hops to that point. She then randomly
chooses a distance uniformly at random from and a direction uniformly at
random from {north, south, east, west}. All of her choices are independent. She now
hops the distance in the chosen direction. What is the probability that she lands
outside the square?
Problem 231
Pick one
Official solution
WLOG, we assume Sonya jumps units every time, since that is her expected value.
If Sonya is within blocks of an edge, she can jump off the board. Let us examine the region that is at most blocks from exactly one edge. Figure (Asymptote source)
import graph; Label f; xaxis(0,6,Ticks(f, 6.0, 0.5)); yaxis(0,6,Ticks(f, 6.0, 0.5)); draw((0,0)--(6,0)--(6,6)--(0,6)--cycle); filldraw((0,0.5)--(0.5,0.5)--(0.5,5.5)--(0,5.5)--cycle,gray); filldraw((0.5,0)--(0.5,0.5)--(5.5,0.5)--(5.5,0)--cycle,gray); filldraw((6,0.5)--(5.5,0.5)--(5.5,5.5)--(6,5.5)--cycle,gray); filldraw((0.5,6)--(0.5,5.5)--(5.5,5.5)--(5.5,6)--cycle,gray);
If Sonya starts in this region, she has a chance of landing outside (there's exactly one direction she can hop to get out). The total area of this region is For this region, Sonya has a chance, so we multiply by to get
If Sonya is in one of the corner squares, she can go two directions to get out, so she has a chance to get out. The total area is , so this region yields
Adding the two, we get . This is out of square units of area, so our answer is thus
~Technodoggo